Imagine a scenario with me for a moment if you have time?
Let’s say you agree to run this scenario “for real” as my 5-year old daughter would say.
Someone (insert name) asks you to sit in a chair and close your eyes. Before you know it you’re being blindfolded, whisked off, and stuffed in the back of a big van. You can’t hear anything or see anything. Now you can feel the van is driving for hours and hours. Suddenly the van stops and comes to an abrupt stop (like screeching and tires smoking).
Now you’re whisked into some place, and you get ushered into a door and the door closes behind you with a slam. Now the blindfold is removed and you open your eyes and there is an 8.5” x 11” sheet in front of you, a pen, and a bottle of water.
Another man comes in and looks very serious. He says “ for one million dollars per year for the rest of your life, scribe a map for me that tells me how to get from here to Shangri-La. If you can provide me a map, you will receive one million dollars per year adjusted for inflation! Wow, which basically means I don’t lose any of the one million per year to the greatest thief in American History “Inflation”.
You don’t have a smart device on you either!! So now you say “ No problem, I’ll provide you with a map, but I need to know where we are and where the hell Shangri-La is?”
What else would you ask in this scenario? These are the first questions when we’re trying to navigate anything unknown, right? Where are we starting from and where are we going?
So why don’t we ask this question with the most important question of our life- such as when will I be financially free to live out my dreams? Hmmm….
Well I’m guessing that most people would answer “Well, my Certified Financial Manager (CFM) says I can retire when I’m 68” or worse yet “Well, I’ll retire at 67 years old when I receive my Social Security benefit and Medicare kicks in”. Do you have the slightest clue what your CFM used as “input” into the model and if it’s accurate? How about the “output” like – how much money will I be receiving per month and my corresponding lifestyle?
“Money is not as important as Oxygen, but it ranks right up there.” -Zig Ziglar
How much monthly income determines whether you will eat Sushi in retirement or cat food. It will determine if you wait 4 days for an ultrasound or 4 years. It will determine if you live in a swank La Jolla, CA townhome or in a trailer “down by the river”. BTW, I like trailers down by the river, I’m just suggesting it may not be as costly as a La Jolla townhome.
I can’t stress how important understanding the “input” and “output” is to your future. So let the CFM run his scenario but I suggest you run your own “back of the napkin” or a 1-page retirement plan.
You create your own future “future you”.
Step 1: Where are we starting from?
Net Worth – An individual’s net worth is simply the value that is left after subtracting liabilities from assets.
Examples of assets include real estate, cash, stocks, bonds, mutual funds, precious metals, cryptos, insurance policies, companies owned or companies directly invested in, etc..
Examples of liabilities include debt like mortgages, credit card balances, student loans, and car loans, any other obligation to take money out of your pocket.
If the asset above is leveraged then there will be a corresponding debt associated with each liability, and that’s good debt if the interest is fixed and the cash flow stream is durable.
NET WORTH = ASSETS – LIABILITIES
Great! Now you know where you’re starting from! A very important aspect of scribing your map.
Step 2 : Where are you going?
Shangri-La is a fictional place in Asia’s Kunlun Mountians. At least we know it’s located in the longest mountain chain in China, almost 1900 miles long. How cool!
How do we figure out where we need to go? Back to our financial rules of thumb.
25% RULE:
Take your annual expenses and multiply by 25 will equal the net worth you need to be financial free and retire.
Let’s say your current total expenses is $8000/month for simple math. $8000 x 12 = $96,000 a year to cover your expenses. This rule says that you need to have a Net Worth = $2,500,000 to safetly retire.
Does this work?
4% RULE:
Take your net worth and multiply by 4% and you can safely withdraw this amount each year and not run out of money in retirement.
So let’s say you had $2,500,000 in Net Worth. You could safely withdraw $100,000 ($2,500,000 * 4% = $100,000).
Same rule just turned on it’s head.
When estimating how much you will need to save for retirement, assume your “future you” will spend as much as the “real you”. So if you’re currently spending 100k per year you will need to have at least this much in income, and to add a buffer for the unforeseen, add 10-20%. The “future you” will enjoy their sushi.
Scenario 1 “future you”
You do step 1 above and realize you have a Net Worth of $500,000. Good for you! And with step 2 you realize that you will need $2,500,000 to retire.
From ‘Your One Page Retirement Plan’ Part 1 (see previous blog):
So to get from $500,000 to $2,500,000 you will need:
1 double $1,000,000
2 doubles $2,000,000
3 doubles $4,000,000 (2^3 =8. 8 x $500k = $4M)
So you’ll need roughly 2.5 doubles. Don’t get precise on me, this is for head math!
So let’s say you feel comfortable investing in an S&P index fund which has returned roughly 8% historically. I know the stock bulls will tell you it’s more like 11-12%, but whatever, we’re ballparking and trying to be conservative here.
So you double every 9 years at 8% (See the law of 72). We need 2.5 doubles so that’s 2.5 x 9 years= 22.5 years to reach financial independence.
Now you can run other scenarios:
Scenario 2 “future you”
Now let’s say you are not going from sushi to catfood, but have decide to move from California to Georgia and can trim back your expenses 25%. Now your monthly expenses are $6,000/month because you have your house paid for in Georgia and you have grandkids there!
$72,000 x 25 = $1,800,000 required Financial Freedom Net Worth
Now I only need 2 doubles, actually less but I always round to the most conservative answer, and with the 8% return I can retire in 18 years in Georgia.
Moving to Georgia just freed up over 4 years of my life!
Scenario 3 “future you”
This “future you” is thinking the more money I have, probably the longer I’ll live. Also, I want to accelerate my retirement from a J.O.B. (Just Over Broke) to my side hustle, play guitar, hang out on the beach north of the border, travel whenever and however, and eat sushi whenever I want.
Let’s more than double your current expenses; let’s say you want to live large AND invest. Now you need $320,000 per year in retirement, or about $8,000,000 (25 x $320,000= $8,000,000) in Net Worth.
But let’s also say you invest in your financial education, read financial books at night, attend a few seminars, and watch less “you name it” miniseries. Let’s say you’ve figured out a way to safely make 18% on your investments. Now you double every 4 years (4*18 = 72).
1 double $1,000,000
2 doubles $2,000,000
3 doubles $4,000,000 (2^3 =8. 8 x $500k = $4M)
4 doubles $8,000,000 (2^4 =16. 16 x $500k = $8M)
Knowing this, you say “let’s do that!” Upgrade the “future you”, and you can retire with a very posh lifestyle in only 16 years.
Do you see how powerful compounding is?
The “inputs” that you can play with are:
- Net Worth (where are you starting from?)
- Runway (How many years until Mai Tai’s on the beach at the Moana Surfrider in Waikiki)
- Compound Rate (How fast are you doubling?)
Once again, this stuff is all ballpark. I still advocate for having a CFM run a full financial plan for you on their magic software and having meetings annually to measure your progress. But what I want for you is to understand the implications of the “inputs” and “outputs”. I believe you should understand and measure the inputs and adjust your outputs accordingly.
If your financial planner is only compounding you at a 6% rate, you should know that their lack of performance is costing you big time in your lifestyle post retirement as well as how many retirement years your “future you” will enjoy.
Let’s hear again from the most successful investor of all time, Warren Buffet, who says
“My wealth has come from a combination of living in America, some lucky genes, and compound interest.”
Considering the “lucky genes” I’m guessing he’s talking about eating McDonald’s every morning and drinking Coca Cola instead of water and being alive at 92 years of age.
But his success he attributes to compound interest.
Am I making my point?
If this blog has provided value to you, please hit the “like button” or better yet leave a comment so I know you like the topic. If you have had a similar conversation with friends or family, please forward to them also. Or send any questions to derek@aviaracapitalinvestments.com.
Best,
Derek
Derek Petersen
Chief Compounding Officer
Aviara Capital Investments
www.AviaraCapitalInvestments.com
www.linkedin.com/in/derekpetersen
Disclaimer: I am a financial independence guy and a financial freedom hack. I am not a financial advisor, a CPA, or a broker of anything. I recommend discussing financial decisions and/or planning with the professionals.